Thursday, September 11, 2014

Holy Forge Chest Analysis

(Posted by Miklós of the DolyGames Team)

Greetings! I'm Miklós, author of the wartune-balens blog. Cosmos was kind enough to invite me to publish articles here as well, so from now on, you will see posts from me. I'm an optimizer type, so I my focus is to build the strongest character possible from limited resources. 

I started publishing when I saw that a lot of people literally waste money in the game. I believe that you have to spend some amount to be able to enjoy the game - but you can spend that amount wisely or brainlessly. So I try to give advice on optimize play, and optimize spending.

I usually post in the following categories:
  1. analysis of a current event, advice if you should spend or not.
  2. spoiler info on game mechanics, hints, advice on a specific game feature.
  3. general articles on game theory, strategy with hopefully wise words :)

Balens and BR

When you spend balens in the game, you always buy Battle Rating. So it is wise to get the most BR for your balens. I used to say, spend only when you get at least +1 BR for every 10 balens. Lately, with BRs going skyhigh, and things getting cheaper and cheaper, I would say even that is expensive. Right now, I wouldn't recommend buying a mount for 2k balen / +10 stats (which is exactly +1 BR / 10 balens) unless a big spender event is running as well.
It is especially hard to say the value of the chests. Some say Wartune is a big casino where chances are unknown and you don't know what you buy. So you have to be especially alert when you buy these chests.
You should use a method which professional poker players use. It's called calculating the expected value. You don't know what will you find in a chest: but you can give an approximation to its value. It works this way:
Take the first item which can come out of the box. Determine it's value, depending on how much BR it gives to you. Mutiply this value with the probability of getting that item.
Do this for each item. At the end, you will know the expected value of a chest. Chests are usually sold for 39 balens. The expected value must be significantly more than 39 to worth buying. (If it's just about the same, the risk of being unlucky makes it abad deal).

Analysis of the Holy Forge Chest

Here I will show you an example with the current box on sale - the Holy Forge Chest:

Divinity Force
It worth the most if you exchange it for a Thunder Beast, in that case one Divinty Force value = 6000 / 200 = 30 balens. The second best deal is if you exchange it for sepulcrum, in that case, one DF worth 20 balens.
Chance to find one in a chest is roughly 50%.
So our first value is 0.5 x 30 = 15 balens.
If you exchange them for sepu, value is 0.5 x 20 = 10 balens.
80.000 gold
50k gold worth about 1 balen (you can find my calculation of the item values on the Wartune Balens website > here < (will open in a new window)). so this is 1.6 balen. It's a common drop, chance is 12%.
0.12 x 1.6 = 0.192 balen.
Mount training whip x3
0.12 x 6 = 0.72 balen
Runestone x 3
0.12 x 6 = 0.72 balen
Vulcan's Stove x 1
sorry, ? (0) balen at this time.
1000000 gold
This is a rare drop, 0.7% chance. 1M gold worth 1M/50k= 20 balens
0.007 x 20 = 0.14 balen
100 sepulcrum
0.007 x 1000 = 7 balens.
100 mahra
0.007 x 1000 = 7 balens.
Thunder beast
ultra-rare drop, chance is 0.1%. It's a +30 mount, usually sold for 6000 balens:
0.001 x 6000 = 6 balens.
There is one more trick here. If you are lucky, and get a Thunder beast, you will exchange your divinity shards for sepulcrum, not a beast. If you are unlucky, and count shards for 30, then you didn't find a beast. So there are 2 possibilities:
Find a beast and exchange divinity shards for sepu:
total chest value = 10 +0.192+0.72+0.72+0+0.14+7+7+6 = 31.77 balens.
If no beast and try to exchange for one:
total chest value = 15+0.192+0.72+0.72+0+0.14+7+7+0 = 30.77 balens.
Take the higher value: so the total chest value (without Vulcan's Stove) is 31.77 balens. Not so great for 39 balens :( 
If you like the Thunder Beast, you can get it later for a fix price anyway.