Lucky Gold Pack Drop Rates v1

Hey guys, here below I have prepared the v1 drop rates for the Lucky Gold Pack based on 319 chests from my account. The Lucky Gold Pack is not an obtainable item in regular Wartune features and is gotten only via Hot Event rewards. It contains from 100k and up to 1 million gold per chest and so it is a very good item to store and use when you need a lot of gold.

But how often do you get 100k and larger gold amounts?

What we see in this version 1 report is that the vast majority of time you will get 100k gold and not the higher amounts, so 66.1% of the time the chests gave 100k gold.

Next, 26.3% of the time they dropped 200k gold, which means if you combine this with the 100k percentage then you have 92.5% of the time only 100k or 200k, so definitely the higher amounts are there more as a carrot at the end of the stick.

The 400k, 500k and 1 million gold

1 million gold was very rare. Just 2 dropped from 319 chests (0.6%). Also quite rare the 500k gold, which dropped only 5 times (1.6%). And lastly the 400k gold had a drop rate of 5.3%.

So what is the real value Lucky Gold Pack gives?

Calculating the value received from the 319 chests. 1 Lucky Gold Pack chest is worth or gives 154,232 gold.

Lucky Gold Pack Item Description

Lastly, if someone wants to send me more data for Lucky Gold Pack or any other chest / box / pack feel free to email me, but please don't send me few numbers - only send me if you got a big bunch :)

Forbidden Treasure Chest I Drop Rates v1

Hey guys, here below you see my drop rate report for the Forbidden Treasure Chest I, where I have been writing the items from my own chests. Same size is not huge at all, I have opened 32 chests so far and we can see there is a large variety of items falling from this chest, which is very nice.

The sample size is not big enough to make any conclusions yet, other than the 300 bound balens are probably rare, so if people want to help with data please email me data (minimum 10 chests per person - the more the better). DO NOT send me few chests because those could be lucky or unlucky.

Dimension Coordinate Drop Rates v1

Hey guys, I've been recording the data for the Dimension Coordinate Drop Rates, especially since a while back I could synthesize 4000+ shards, so I prepared the below report (large quality picture) and, at least from the preliminary results from my own data of 57 chests it does seem that Light and Dark coordinates drop at half or less than half the rate of other coordinates.

However, to get a more accurate understanding I invite everyone who is willing to email me data (minimum 10 chests per person - the more the better). DO NOT send me few chests because those could be lucky or unlucky.

Eternal Longing Pack Drop Rates v1

Hey guys, here I have prepared the report on the drop rates of the Eternal Longing Pack with my and Rainbowdash's data totaling 985 chests / boxes, which is pretty good for getting decent accuracy drop rates (of course the more the merrier).

So what do we see? The Arabian Camel Card, which is the main focus of everyone, is at 0.2% drop rate, which is in line with my expectations (I even expected less since I saw many people opening lots of boxes and didn't get one). The Hades Seal - same rate as the mount. Then we have the Coin of Ancestry with a 2.3% drop rate, which means you get 2 of these in average if you open 100 chests.

Other interesting items are:

• The 2nd event item is at 30.3% which is roughly 1 in every 3 boxes.
• The 100 Sepulcrums are very rare with only a 0.5% rate which means that they think that 200 sepulcrums are worth same as 1 mount, which is a bit weird.
• My personal favorite are the Divinity Soul Chests, which drop at a 10.7% rate and I really needed those.
• The Sylph Equipment Shards, a.k.a. trash, with 17.7% rate unfortunately.
• The Divinity Shards, also almost same rate as the mount at 0.3%.

Pictures of the various items:

Eternal Longing Pack:

Arabian Camel Card

Divinity Shard

Divinity Soul Chest

Coin of Ancestry

Whisper of Blessing

Sylph Sepulcrum

Mahra

Sylph Equipment Shard

Soul Seal

Ancient Horn

Yuletide Exchange Trick Analysis Table

Hey guys, if you didn't see the awesome Yuletide exchange trick that Elia shared then go check it out first before you see this analysis. Here I analyze if it is interesting to exchange clothing for the various rewards.

Elia's article: Convert Clothing for Additional Yuletide Item Exchanges!

The Yuletide Exchange Rates

Level 1 Yuletide clothing piece gives 10 x 1st Calendar Page + 20 x Sepulcrum
Level 1 Yuletide wings give 25 x 1st Calendar Page + 40 x Sepulcrum

So basically wings is definitely not interesting because this says that they value wings as 2.5 clothing pieces, when wings are actually worth 5 Fashion Cores or 5 clothing pieces. So a more fair exchange for wings would have been 50 x 1st Calendar Page + 100 x Sepulcrum based on clothing times 5.

Yuletide Exchange Trick Analysis Table

Decision is on the right side and you can enlarge the picture by clicking on it to see the full resolution image.

Clarification on the Yuletide Wings Decision

Basic wings are basically worth 5 Fashion Cores or 5 clothing pieces, so 39 clothing pieces is 8 times more the price, which is why the decision is still "no". Additionally you might get the wings from the drops. However, if you have tons of level 1 clothing items and already high level cloths on you AND you were super unlucky not to have the wings drop then maybe it is a good idea to exchange for this. But probably not :)

Clarification on the Owly Card Decision

120 clothing is about 35.8k balens vlaue, which is almost the value of a level 7 clothing piece, so then you have the question if the mount is worth 35.8k balens to which few players will say "yes" but most will say "no".

Yuletide for Sepulcrums

So we already saw that exchanging clothing is not interesting for most of the exchange options, however we have to keep in mind that you also get Sepulcrums for the exchange. And here we have the question:

Is it worth converting clothing into sepulcrums?

I would say that we earn sepulcrum every day, but clothing we do not, so converting a more rare item into a more common item I think is not worth it.

As a general conclusion the Yuletide exchange trick is mostly beneficial to the ultra-top level players who have tons of clothing boxes / level 1 clothing pieces.

The Yuletide "weird" Set :)

Yuletide Adornment

Yuletide Robes

Yuletide Gear

Yuletide Wings

R2Games openly shamelessly cheating players

Hey guys, it seems that R2Games has started to openly and shamelessly cheat players with their sales information, which is really a surprise for me - why would you lie to your own paying customers? This is a very bad business decision and will damage them for sure. As someone who promotes Wartune for already 2+ years (even though R2Games treated me like dirt) this makes me feel ashamed in their place.

So what did they do? 

They launched something called "Recharge Gift Pack" which is currently running in-game, where you have to recharge balens (a.k.a. pay money) to get a bonus package.

Immediately on page 1 you see the option of recharging 1000 balens, for which they give you a bonus pack of 1 sylph equipment enchantment pack + 5 mahra + 10 sepulcrum + 100k gold.

The problem is though that they claim in big letters that this pack is valued at 4999 balens and this is a huge lie, and a very obvious one at that! So I am going to break it down just below how much exactly this pack is worth both in official retail price and in market price:

5 Mahra

The official game price (a.k.a. Retail Price) for Mahra in Wartune is 35 balens (picture below), so 5 Mahra would cost 175 balens.

That said the amount that people are willing to pay for this when it is on sale (a.k.a. the Market Price) is more like ~10 balens (so 50 balens for 5).

10 Sepulcrum

Sepulcrum has exactly the same price as Mahra so for 10 this would be 350 balens at retail price or 100 balens at market price.

100k Gold

100k gold in the current stage of the game and in the context of recharging 1000+ balens has no value at all. It is just a shiny decoration. But ok, let's call it 10 balens just to give it something.

1 Sylph Equipment Enchantment Pack

Just one pack, although they made it look really cool for an unknown reason, contains simply 3 Magical Moonlights and 3 Glints of Magic. This is enough to click on the enchant button just 1 time (+ you have to pay a lot of gold) and it does not even guarantee success. So how much does 1 press of an enchant button cost? I'll be really generous and say the same amount as a sylph enchant button with mahra, so 35 balens for 3 Magical Moonlights and 3 Glints of Magic or 1 Sylph Equipment Enchantment Pack.

Conclusion

Retail price conclusion = 175 + 350 + 10 + 35 = 570 balens! Not 4999!!!
Market price conclusion = 50 + 100 + 0 + 10 = 160 balens

So shame on R2Games for lying to their paying customers! and especially during Christmas / New Year holidays.

I hope they wake up from this dirty strategy and build a business based on respecting their customers.

P.S. some people might say this is the fault of 7Road and not R2Games, but it is R2games who runs the European / Western operation and therefore it is their responsibly / fault.

P.P.S. by the way, other levels are also not honest; I am not going to analyze every recharge level, but here are the pictures and you can see that yourself. For example 5000 balens, which they claim is valued at 9999 balens is just at most 3000 balens.

1-5 Gem Pack Drop Rates v3

Hey guys, here I have prepared the report for the 1-5 Gem Pack drop rates version 3, which is made up of 14,531 gem packs of data. As always thanks to everyone who is supporting with the data gathering! Everyone is welcome to email me data on anything in the game - the more the merrier.

Results Review

What we see is that 68.8% of the time we will be getting level 1 gems from these packs and 18.5% of the time level 2 gems. This means that 87.3% of all 1-5 gems packs which we open will be dropping level 1 and level 2 gems, which is basically 9 out of 10. That's a lot more "crappy" gems than i thought.

Next we have the level 3 gems with an 8.8% drop rate, so roughly speaking 1 out of 10, but the more interesting are of course the level 4 and level 5 gems.

These drop with a rate of 2.7% and 1.2%, so this means that if you open 100 of 1-5 gem packs you can expect about 3 level 4 gems and 1 level 5 gem. Auch! That's not too much at all.

What reaction did you have when you saw this data? Is it as you expected or you were expecting a lot more? Click on the picture to enlarge it - it is a high quality image.

148 million gold + 429 items for one +20

Hey guys, when I was watching Elia's Sylph Equipment Enchant video I was pretty awe-struck at the huge amount of resources required to get one +20 equipment item. So I grabbed bits and pieces and made this 1 collage style image to share with everyone (you can enlarge it more if you want).

Sylph Equipment Enchant Madness: 148 million gold + 429 items for one +20

• Elia started with ~212m gold and 952 Glints & Moonlights
• for +10 she spent ~25 mil gold and 141 Glints & Moonlights
• then she upgraded to purple
• then an additional ~123 mil gold and 288 Glints & Moonlights to get to +20

I think this is a ridiculous quantity, because our level 80 equipment pieces cost ~93 mil gold to enchant to +36 using also level 8-9 luck stones and these are the top equipment items in the game...

What do you guys think? Do you find this a fair amount or do you agree that this sylph equipment enchanting cost of ~148 mil gold + 429 of Glint/Moonlight is just crazy? 

by the way for anyone who missed that video you can check it out below:

Elia's video on Sylph Equipment Enchant and Upgrade

Astral Refining – Cost Analysis

(by Ashira of the DolyGames Team; Edits by Cosmos)

Hey guys, a lot of information has been provided on astral refining over the past weeks – to sum it up briefly, the main aspects about astral refining are:

• You refine astral slots, not astrals! So you can train an astral slot to a certain level and then switch around your astrals to get the right effect for the situation you are facing.
• It is a lot more valuable to refine % astrals than stats astrals: If you have Level 5 refinement on a Level 10 Enhanced Determination astral, your crit damage is increased by an additional 5% (as it is now 55% increased crit damage instead of the 50% you got from the Level 10 astral itself). If you have Level 5 refinement on a Level 10 Holy Force (or Holy Mysticality) astral your PATK/MATK “only” increases by 144, which is a nice boost, but nowhere near the effect of crit hits dealing 5% more damage.
• Refinement for Deflection and Regeneration astrals is not very valuable: If the refinement would increase the trigger chance, that would be great, but it only affects the damage (for Determination) or healing (for Regeneration) effect, and since these effects are capped at 50k HP, this is not a very good boost.

The thing that has not been discussed a lot about astral refinement is the gold cost associated with it. There is some confusion about the maximum refinement level, and other sources have stated that astral refining is capped at Level 5, but this is clearly not the case, as you can see in the picture below (which is taken from my character).

So from this – and since the maximum level for astrals is Level 10 – it is quite likely that the maximum astral refining level is also Level 10. Let us take a closer look at the costs for the levels we know about, and the expected costs for refining up to Level 10:

Blessing Points per Astral Refinement Level

• The first refinement requires 10 Blessing points (1 Blessing point usually means spending 1 million gold, with the chance of getting lucky and getting 5 Blessing points from 1 million gold).
• From Level 1 to Level 2 it requires 16 Blessing points (60% increase – compared to previous level).
• From Level 2 to Level 3 it requires 54 Blessing points (237.50% increase).
• From Level 3 to Level 4 it requires 128 Blessing points (137.04% increase).
• From Level 4 to Level 5 it requires 250 Blessing points (95.31% increase).
• From Level 5 to Level 6 it requires 432 Blessing points (72.80% increase). 

These are the things we know for certain – the data is presented in the graph below!

Incremental Cost per Level: The amount of Blessing Points needed to move to the next higher level.

Relative Cost Increase from Current Level to Next Level.

Estimating the Costs up to Level 10

As can be seen in the graph of the relative costs, the relationship between level and cost increase is non-linear (blue line) – first the cost increases considerably (by over 200% from Level 2 to Level 3), but then there is a steady decline in the cost increase from Level 3 to Level 6. In order to make a vaguely reasonable prediction, we have to rely on the mean (and/or median) value, as no clear functional pattern can be derived. The mean relative cost increase from one level to the next is 121% (dashed red line), and the median relative cost increase – which is more robust to the extreme value that is observed for the refining step from Level 2 to Level 3 – is 95%. A third scenario that is worth considering is ignoring the early part of the pattern (up to Level 3) and to take a closer look at the declining part of the graph, which seems to asymptotically move towards the value that was observed for the first step, 60%. As the relative cost increase from Level 2 to Level 3 seems unnaturally high, we will not consider the mean case and stick to these two scenarios in order to produce a realistic prediction of the refining costs from Level 6 to Level 10:

(a) The relative cost increase per level from Level 6 up to Level 10 is 95% based on the mean,
(b) it is 60% based on an inspection of the functional shape, as a lower bound.

Note from Cosmos: theoretically, there is 1 more possibility, which is that the requirement flats out like Fate Auras or Whips at a fixed rate for higher levels. Ashira points this out in the conclusions below.

2+ billion gold for level 10

The graph below shows the cost for the Level 6 to Level 10 refinement steps for these scenarios. As you can see, the cost for the higher level refining can be expected to be enormous. To most players, the cost of moving from Level 5 to Level 6 (which we know costs 432 Blessing Points, so roughly 350 – 400 million gold, depending on how lucky you are) is already extremely high. Based on the predictions, refining an astral from Level 9 to Level 10 will cost 2831 Blessing Points (so definitely over 2 billion gold) assuming the relative cost increase per level is 60%, or as much as 6246 Blessing Points (so probably between 5 and 6 billion gold) assuming the relative cost increase per level is 95%. Now everybody will have to decide for himself/herself whether or not spending so much gold just to get 1% of additional astral effect is worth it – personally, I already consider the 432 Blessing Points (so roughly 350 – 400 million gold) a lot for just 1% of additional astral effect for one astral spot. However, it always depends on the alternatives: Is there a better opportunity to spend the gold on? There are already quite a few people with maxed out astral levels, so more or less the only way to spend their gold for them is astral refining or Holy Forge.

Note from Cosmos: specifically for the Illusion astral an additional percentage point might be worth considering even at high cost.

Astral Refining Conclusions and Takeaways

• There definitely is no reason to “worry” that we might run out of opportunities to spend gold on in the future. Even with maxed out astrals, and even after maxing out Holy Forge, which will take its time but will eventually happen, there’s always astral refining. Even when we use the “lower bound” estimates from above, refining an astral spot from scratch to Level 10 costs 7287 Blessing points, so 58302 Blessing points for all 8 astral spots that can be refined, which is around 50 billion gold. Based on the median value estimates it would even cost 12824 Blessing points to refine one spot to Level 10, so a total 102597 Blessing points for all 8 spots, which is not too far from 100 billion gold.
• Knowing the way Wartune works, it might be the case that the cost for a level upgrade caps at some point (as it does with Fate Stone training at 408 per level, or for converting high-level gems). So based on the information we have at the moment, the calculations above seem most realistic, but the real costs might turn out to be lower, if they decide to cap the cost per level instead of increasing the cost for every new level.
• We do not have data on the probability of lucky refinement steps (so when you get 5 blessing points from spending 1 million gold). So if you guys drop a huge amount of gold into astral refining, it would be helpful if you send Cosmos data on it, for instance: “I used 20 million gold on astral refining today and got 32 blessing points from it” (which would mean that 3 out of the 20 refinement steps were ‘lucky’ steps).

We might not know the exact cost of astral refining, but what is rather obvious after this analysis is that it will take a long time to max out this feature of the game. So since we will always have things to spend gold on and gold will always be an important element of the game – try to play efficiently when it comes to gold!

Cheapest Source of Resistance Crystals (For Cashing Players)

(Posted by Ashira of the DolyGames Team) (newly joined)

At the moment, we have three ways to obtain resistance crystals in the game via cashing. It is every player’s individual choice to cash for something or not, but if one decides to cash on something, it is a good idea to find the cheapest source at least.

The three sources are:

• Level 1 Resistance Crystal (Regular Shop)
• Hot Event Resistance Crystal Chests
• Higher-Quality Treasure Hunt

Let us explore the cost for each of these sources – the assumption here is that the player wants to obtain a large number of resistance crystals in a relatively short period of time, so for Treasure Hunt, I will only consider Orange/Gold Treasure Hunt.

1) Regular Shop 

The price of a Level 1 Resistance Crystal in regular shop (on Page ‘Gems’) is 145 Balens.

2) Hot Event Chests 

As always, R2 does not give us the exact drop rates for the chest items, so we have to rely on empirical data. For the purpose of this article, I got 200 of these event chests from the shop and recorded the statistics. I separated the 200 chests in four subsamples to see how diverse the results can be (clearly, the results are not completely accurate with a sample size of 200, but it can be considered a good approximation). In the table, ‘Sample 1’ refers to the first 50 chests opened, ‘Sample 2’ refers to the second 50 chests opened, etc.

Sample #	30 Crystals	40 Crystals	100 Crystals	300 Crystals	600 Crystals	1000 Crystals	Total
Sample 1	28	14	2	4	2	0	4000
Sample 2	24	18	3	3	2	0	3840
Sample 3	24	15	7	4	0	0	3220
Sample 4	26	11	6	4	3	0	4820
Drop Rate	51%	29%	9%	7.5%	3.5%	0%	15880

So, as you can see, from 200 chests for 4000 Balens, I got 15880 resistance crystal shards. Roughly half of the chests dropped only 30 crystals and I got not a single drop with 1000 crystals in this sample, which I consider unusual based on previous experience with these chests. So those 15880 shards are probably a rather low number for 200 chests opened.

Now since I spent 4000 Balens and got 15880 shards (which is equal 158.8 Level 1 Resistance Crystals), this makes the price for one Level 1 Resistance Crystal equal to 4000/158.8 = 25.18 Balens. So the price here is just over a sixth of the price they charge in the regular shop.

3) Orange Treasure Hunt

For orange Treasure Hunt, it is incorrect to take the entire rewards from it as a reward for the Balens spent, because it is possible to do green Treasure Hunt completely free. So we can only consider the difference in rewards of orange Treasure Hunt versus green Treasure Hunt as reward for the Balens spent.

I make two assumptions for the calculations below:

• I assume that a team of four people does a full orange Treasure Hunt (i.e. 5 orange maps) and that each of the four people gets the final map every 4^th day, which means that every day a single player gets 5/4 = 1.25 orange maps.
• I assume that on average 2 out of the 5 summoned bosses (i.e. 40%) are elite bosses. This is an estimate based on experience in the game.

Now let us first calculate the rewards you get for green Treasure Hunt under the assumptions made:

A normal green boss in a party of 4 gives 36 crystal shards, and an elite green boss in a party of 4 gives 48 crystal shards. Since we assumed that 2 out of the 5 bosses are elites, this results in a reward of 3 * 36 + 2 * 48 = 208 crystal shards.

For orange Treasure Hunt, the calculation is a bit more complex, since there is an additional bonus if you summon the orange boss yourself (as opposed to teammates summoning it). In a party of 4, a normal orange boss summoned by a teammate gives 108 crystal shards, a normal orange boss summoned by you gives 144 crystal shards, an elite orange boss summoned by a teammate also gives 144 crystal shards, and an elite orange boss summoned by you gives 192 crystal shards. Using the assumptions made above (that you – on average – get 1.25 out of the 5 maps each day and that 40% of the summoned bosses are elites), this results in the following table:

Category	Reward (Shards)	Number of Bosses (in this Category)	Total Rewards (Reward * Number)
Elite (You)	192	1.25*40% = 0.5	96
Normal (You)	144	1.25*60% = 0.75	108
Elite (Mate)	144	3.75*40% = 1.5	216
Normal (mate)	108	3.75*60% = 2.25	243
Total		5	663

As can be seen, under these assumptions, orange Treasure Hunt gives on average 663 resistance crystal shards as reward. Taking into account the rewards from green Treasure Hunt, this means we get 663 – 208 = 459 shards (or 4.59 Level 1 Resistance Crystals) as additional rewards in orange Treasure Hunt for a Balen cost of 1.25 maps * 120 Balens (for 1-time refresh) = 150 Balens. This makes the cost of a Level 1 Resistance Crystal equal to 150/4.59 = 32.68 Balens.

Conclusion: So if I want to spend 150 Balens per day on Resistances, what should I do?

Never ever even think about getting those crystals from regular shop, for the 150 Balens you would only get 1.03 Level 1 Resistance Crystals.

Doing Orange Treasure Hunt, the 150 Balens give you 4.59 Level 1 Resistance Crystals. You have no other way to gain free crystals though, since you can only do 5 treasure maps for rewards per day.

Purchasing the Hot Event chests, the 150 Balens give you 5.96 Level 1 Resistance Crystals. However, you can also gain more free crystals on the same day, since you can do 5 green treasure maps, which gives you an additional 2.08 Level 1 Resistance Crystals, as calculated above. So this gives you a total of 8.04 Level 1 Resistance Crystals per day.

In conclusion, if you have a limited amount of Balens to spend, your best option to gain resistance crystals fast are the Hot Event chests + doing green Treasure Hunt. The advantage of this strategy is even more severe than displayed above, since you also get quite a bit of gold with the purchased Hot Event chests, and you avoid the trouble of finding a party for doing orange Treasure Hunt (which – compared to finding a party for green Treasure Hunt – can be really time-consuming). That said, keep in mind that the calculations are based on a relatively small sample of 200 purchased chests and that with Hot Event chests buying only a small amount of them involves a risk of getting really unlucky and a chance of getting really lucky – so if you only have a very limited budget to spend on these chests (say, you would buy only 20 chests) AND you are a very risk-averse person, this strategy might not be appealing to you.